Geomodeling of evolution processes of the thermokarst Batagay crater (Batagayka) using GIS

Since the beginning of the 2000s, international and Russian scientists have carried out numerous studies of the dynamics of the thermokarst crater based on the analysis of space images taken at diff erent times. Some of them indicate a direct relationship between the change in the crater’s area and climate warming; in others ,such a relationship is not traced. At the same time, within the same territory, diff erent researchers have observed contradictory results, which is due to the insuffi cient development of methods for aerospace studies of the dynamics of thermokarst depressions in the available works.

Therefore, it is important to develop a reliable methodology for studying the dynamics of the thermokarst crater using satellite images; experimental studies in various regions of the permafrost zone of Russia, carried out on the basis of a common methodology developed for all regions, will make it possible to identify the causes of changes and answer the question: may the thermokarst crater signal the response of the permafrost zone to the modern climate warming, which is no less a relevant task.

The goal was to identify eff ective methods in the study of the thermokarst crater and forecast its increase using geoinformation technologies, as well as to make a 3D visualization of the Batagayka thermokarst crater.

 The article describes a climate analysis carried out according to the data of the Verkhoyansk weather station; new methods used; fl owcharts written to synchronize the processing of satellite images on two GIS programs, such as IDRISI Selva and QGIS; and a possible forecast based on the cellular automaton method for predicting the thermokarst crater Batagayka by 2038, using GIS programs and multi-temporal satellite images Landsat 5(8). A vector map of the evolution of the Batagay thermokarst crater was made for the following years: 1991, 2006, 2019, and 2038.

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