Spatio-temporal variability of cyclonic activity during summer season over Sakha (Yakutia) Republic from 1950 to 2022

Circulation factors determine forest fire risk and the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in northern Siberia and the Russian Far East. In this study, summer cyclonic activity over the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) is quantified using cyclone track data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis model. The assessment utilized the number of cyclones and their centers, the density of cyclone centers and trajectories, and the cyclone coverage of the territory (the number of instances during the summer when a given point was within a low-pressure area). The main center of cyclonic activity is northeastern Yakutia (the upper Yana and Indigirka river basins, as well as the middle and lower reaches of the Kolyma River), where the highest density of cyclone tracks and centers is observed. Our results support the persistence of Verkhoyansk zone of local orographic cyclogenesis. Northwestern Yakutia (the Anabar and Olenyok river basins, the left-bank part of the upper Vilyuy River basin), due to baric formations shifting across the northwest of Krasnoyarsk Krai, has the highest cyclone coverage. Summer cyclonic activity is lowest in the southern regions of Yakutia; this is also the only region where July, rather than June, cyclones are most active. June cyclones dominate the total summer cyclone count in most years; however, July cyclones have become predominant since 2014. The number of summer cyclones has consistently increased by 0.64 cyclones over the 10-year period (1950-2017). In 2019-2020, the region experienced a historical minimum in cyclonic activity, making this trend statistically insignificant. This minimum chronologically coincides with other extreme events: floods in the Far East and the Irkutsk Region, low water levels in the middle reaches of the Lena River (2019), and severe forest fires in Yakutia (2019-2021).

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